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Tournament day! OHGODSONERVOUS. So let's talk about something else this morning.
Election Eve!
(If I ramble, I'm sorry, I've got to get rid of these jitters somehow...maybe I can type them out.)
Some polls of note:
Avg. Poll of Polls nationally of likely voters:
Sen. Lee - 57%
Rep. Johnson - 30%
Undecided - 10%
Also of note: a poll on how likely the polled are to vote.
Already voted: 5%
Undecided: 16%
Likely: 36%
Unlikely: 43%
Let's look at these numbers. First off, Sen. Lee's set up for an easy victory, barring any more surprises...which is not out of the question. More on that in a bit. Still, even if all the undecideds swung Johnson's way, he'd still lose in an unprecedented fashion.
It also seems Lee's "get over it or stay home" speech is indeed having an effect on the electorate. If ALL of the undecided voters, and ALL of the likely voters showed up, then there would be a turnout percentage that would be bested only by post-1968 presidential elections.
That ain't happenin'. Let's say half of the undecideds show, and 35 of the 36% of likelies show. That'd be a 48% turnout (including the 5% who have already voted via early voting)...the lowest since before 1960, close only to the 49% put up by the '96 elections. And even that's a generous assumption, I'd say.
In other words, there are indeed people who will be 'staying home,' or at least are considering doing just that. I'd be interested to see how those who are planning on abstaining split via party lines, but I try to avoid getting into party politics here.
I did mention, however, a potential for more surprises. There's not much, but there is definitely an undercurrent of rumbling as to the timing of GodlessGate. How was it dug up. Who dug it up. Why was it released now. Some people claim that Sen. Lee has people 'in the background,' associations with unspecified groups who are surprisingly good at intel and research. This smacks of tinfoil-hat truthery, something I avoid at all costs, but conspiracy theories don't usually get any notable airtime.
So why am I not more concerned about this? Simple. I think the news networks are looking for some way to stir up drama in an election that seems all but decided...as if things weren't exciting enough on their own, if you ask me.
Regardless, more tonight!
And yeah, a post-tournament report too.
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